104
FXUS62 KTBW 221925
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
225 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024


.DISCUSSION...
Upper low continues to spin along the Atlantic Seaboard with deep
troughing down into the S Gulf of Mexico wrapping very dry air aloft
over the region as seen in water vapor imagery. The cold front
pushing through the S FL Peninsula is associated with the early
winter storm system in New England. Strong high pressure over the
Deep South will continue to keep the very dry and cold Canadian
airmass in the area through the weekend. May see some patchy
frost in N Levy County as winds decouple and temps fall into the
mid 30s towards Saturday morning. Winds are expected to weaken as
temps remain around 5-10+ degrees below seasonal normals but well
above record levels for cool and benign weekend conditions.

The surface high pressure center is expected to move into the W
Atlantic late Sunday into early next week with temps slowly warming
and dew points moderating. A frontal system is expected to move into
the Deep South mid week but stall and move off into the Atlantic
with weak high pressure remaining over the FL Peninsula. Another
weak and mainly dry front is expected to move into the area late in
the week. Weekday temps expected to hold around climate normals
with no significant weather impacts expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue with mainly clear skies and
gusty NW winds this afternoon. Winds to decouple and weaken around
sunset/00Z through Saturday morning .

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure in the region will keep elevated choppy seas
over the waters this afternoon with as Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for the Gulf waters until 7pm. Overnight winds expected
slightly weaken but remain in the exercise caution levels before
finally weakening below headlines Saturday while residual seas will
be slower to subside. Sunday into next week the pressure gradient
will relax for light winds and slight seas returning to E Gulf
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong high pressure in the region continues to produce cold, dry and
gusty conditions this afternoon. The dry airmass will remain over the
area through the weekend as winds decrease. Fuel moisture remains
high with all the recent rains precluding and red flag conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  68  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  71  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  44  69  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  49  70  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  39  67  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  68  55  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion